Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces a fragmented field of low-profile challengers in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district primary on November 3, 2026, under the state’s majority-vote system. The district’s R+26 partisan voting index and Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance against a single Republican opponent support expectations of an outright majority. His campaign has raised over $17 million, dwarfing the combined totals of Democratic candidates Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus Republican entrants Gordon Heslop and Mike Nichols. With opposition split across parties and no recent polling or endorsements indicating a surge by any challenger, trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to an outright first-round winner.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
90% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
90% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces a fragmented field of low-profile challengers in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district primary on November 3, 2026, under the state’s majority-vote system. The district’s R+26 partisan voting index and Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance against a single Republican opponent support expectations of an outright majority. His campaign has raised over $17 million, dwarfing the combined totals of Democratic candidates Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus Republican entrants Gordon Heslop and Mike Nichols. With opposition split across parties and no recent polling or endorsements indicating a surge by any challenger, trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to an outright first-round winner.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$701Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces a fragmented field of low-profile challengers in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district primary on November 3, 2026, under the state’s majority-vote system. The district’s R+26 partisan voting index and Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance against a single Republican opponent support expectations of an outright majority. His campaign has raised over $17 million, dwarfing the combined totals of Democratic candidates Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus Republican entrants Gordon Heslop and Mike Nichols. With opposition split across parties and no recent polling or endorsements indicating a surge by any challenger, trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to an outright first-round winner.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
Volume
$701Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces a fragmented field of low-profile challengers in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district primary on November 3, 2026, under the state’s majority-vote system. The district’s R+26 partisan voting index and Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance against a single Republican opponent support expectations of an outright majority. His campaign has raised over $17 million, dwarfing the combined totals of Democratic candidates Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus Republican entrants Gordon Heslop and Mike Nichols. With opposition split across parties and no recent polling or endorsements indicating a surge by any challenger, trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to an outright first-round winner.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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