**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District jungle primary on November 3, 2026.** The seat carries a D+25 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Carter faces limited opposition from fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated candidate Walter Beach after the August 7 filing deadline. In Louisiana’s open primary system, a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Carter’s established fundraising, name recognition, and the district’s strong Democratic lean create the conditions for traders to assign a 73.5% implied probability to an outright first-round victory. No late-breaking developments have altered this consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
71% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
71% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District jungle primary on November 3, 2026.** The seat carries a D+25 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Carter faces limited opposition from fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated candidate Walter Beach after the August 7 filing deadline.
In Louisiana’s open primary system, a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Carter’s established fundraising, name recognition, and the district’s strong Democratic lean create the conditions for traders to assign a 73.5% implied probability to an outright first-round victory. No late-breaking developments have altered this consensus.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$409Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District jungle primary on November 3, 2026.** The seat carries a D+25 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Carter faces limited opposition from fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated candidate Walter Beach after the August 7 filing deadline.
In Louisiana’s open primary system, a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Carter’s established fundraising, name recognition, and the district’s strong Democratic lean create the conditions for traders to assign a 73.5% implied probability to an outright first-round victory. No late-breaking developments have altered this consensus.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
Volume
$409Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District jungle primary on November 3, 2026.** The seat carries a D+25 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Carter faces limited opposition from fellow Democrat Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and unaffiliated candidate Walter Beach after the August 7 filing deadline. In Louisiana’s open primary system, a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Carter’s established fundraising, name recognition, and the district’s strong Democratic lean create the conditions for traders to assign a 73.5% implied probability to an outright first-round victory. No late-breaking developments have altered this consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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