Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 partisan voting index. The race uses a jungle primary format on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited Republican opposition from Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett in a district he carried with 66.8% in 2024. Recent map litigation and the temporary shift to an all-party primary have not altered the underlying partisan lean or fundraising disparities. Trader consensus at 95% for an outright first-round victory reflects the district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements suggesting a split field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
95% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
95% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 partisan voting index. The race uses a jungle primary format on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited Republican opposition from Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett in a district he carried with 66.8% in 2024. Recent map litigation and the temporary shift to an all-party primary have not altered the underlying partisan lean or fundraising disparities. Trader consensus at 95% for an outright first-round victory reflects the district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements suggesting a split field.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,644Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 partisan voting index. The race uses a jungle primary format on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited Republican opposition from Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett in a district he carried with 66.8% in 2024. Recent map litigation and the temporary shift to an all-party primary have not altered the underlying partisan lean or fundraising disparities. Trader consensus at 95% for an outright first-round victory reflects the district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements suggesting a split field.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$1,644Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 partisan voting index. The race uses a jungle primary format on November 3, 2026, where a candidate needs a majority to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited Republican opposition from Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett in a district he carried with 66.8% in 2024. Recent map litigation and the temporary shift to an all-party primary have not altered the underlying partisan lean or fundraising disparities. Trader consensus at 95% for an outright first-round victory reflects the district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements suggesting a split field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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