Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted broad reductions to federal long-term capital gains rates, which remain at the 0/15/20 percent structure established in prior law. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made select provisions permanent without altering headline rates or advancing indexing for inflation. Recent August 2026 discussions by administration officials on targeted steps, such as larger primary-residence exclusions or inflation adjustments, remain exploratory and face narrow legislative windows ahead of the November midterms. House Ways and Means leaders have signaled possible lame-duck action, yet procedural requirements, competing priorities, and tight timelines have kept broader cuts off the immediate agenda. Trader pricing at 87.5 percent for no change by year-end reflects these stalled dynamics and the pattern of incremental rather than sweeping tax legislation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
13% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
13% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted broad reductions to federal long-term capital gains rates, which remain at the 0/15/20 percent structure established in prior law. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made select provisions permanent without altering headline rates or advancing indexing for inflation. Recent August 2026 discussions by administration officials on targeted steps, such as larger primary-residence exclusions or inflation adjustments, remain exploratory and face narrow legislative windows ahead of the November midterms. House Ways and Means leaders have signaled possible lame-duck action, yet procedural requirements, competing priorities, and tight timelines have kept broader cuts off the immediate agenda. Trader pricing at 87.5 percent for no change by year-end reflects these stalled dynamics and the pattern of incremental rather than sweeping tax legislation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$329Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted broad reductions to federal long-term capital gains rates, which remain at the 0/15/20 percent structure established in prior law. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made select provisions permanent without altering headline rates or advancing indexing for inflation. Recent August 2026 discussions by administration officials on targeted steps, such as larger primary-residence exclusions or inflation adjustments, remain exploratory and face narrow legislative windows ahead of the November midterms. House Ways and Means leaders have signaled possible lame-duck action, yet procedural requirements, competing priorities, and tight timelines have kept broader cuts off the immediate agenda. Trader pricing at 87.5 percent for no change by year-end reflects these stalled dynamics and the pattern of incremental rather than sweeping tax legislation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$329Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted broad reductions to federal long-term capital gains rates, which remain at the 0/15/20 percent structure established in prior law. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made select provisions permanent without altering headline rates or advancing indexing for inflation. Recent August 2026 discussions by administration officials on targeted steps, such as larger primary-residence exclusions or inflation adjustments, remain exploratory and face narrow legislative windows ahead of the November midterms. House Ways and Means leaders have signaled possible lame-duck action, yet procedural requirements, competing priorities, and tight timelines have kept broader cuts off the immediate agenda. Trader pricing at 87.5 percent for no change by year-end reflects these stalled dynamics and the pattern of incremental rather than sweeping tax legislation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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