Escalating US-Iran military conflict since late February 2026 has driven repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg, Hengam, and related sites in the Strait of Hormuz, though Iranian control persists amid fortified defenses and no confirmed territorial seizures. Kharg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, with flows curtailed by a US naval blockade that has slashed loadings to under 300,000 barrels per day in recent months versus pre-war levels near 1.5-2 million. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel and WTI over $100 amid tanker attacks and restricted Hormuz traffic carrying about 20% of global seaborne oil, heightening market-implied odds of further escalation. Trader focus centers on whether Washington pursues ground operations or sustained control amid ongoing retaliatory strikes and Iran's sanctions-zone declarations, with oil price volatility and energy supply metrics serving as key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$142,392 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
September 30
2%
$142,392 Vol.
September 30
$89,616 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military conflict since late February 2026 has driven repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg, Hengam, and related sites in the Strait of Hormuz, though Iranian control persists amid fortified defenses and no confirmed territorial seizures. Kharg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, with flows curtailed by a US naval blockade that has slashed loadings to under 300,000 barrels per day in recent months versus pre-war levels near 1.5-2 million. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel and WTI over $100 amid tanker attacks and restricted Hormuz traffic carrying about 20% of global seaborne oil, heightening market-implied odds of further escalation. Trader focus centers on whether Washington pursues ground operations or sustained control amid ongoing retaliatory strikes and Iran's sanctions-zone declarations, with oil price volatility and energy supply metrics serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$142,392Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military conflict since late February 2026 has driven repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg, Hengam, and related sites in the Strait of Hormuz, though Iranian control persists amid fortified defenses and no confirmed territorial seizures. Kharg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, with flows curtailed by a US naval blockade that has slashed loadings to under 300,000 barrels per day in recent months versus pre-war levels near 1.5-2 million. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel and WTI over $100 amid tanker attacks and restricted Hormuz traffic carrying about 20% of global seaborne oil, heightening market-implied odds of further escalation. Trader focus centers on whether Washington pursues ground operations or sustained control amid ongoing retaliatory strikes and Iran's sanctions-zone declarations, with oil price volatility and energy supply metrics serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$142,392Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran military conflict since late February 2026 has driven repeated strikes on military targets at Kharg, Hengam, and related sites in the Strait of Hormuz, though Iranian control persists amid fortified defenses and no confirmed territorial seizures. Kharg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, with flows curtailed by a US naval blockade that has slashed loadings to under 300,000 barrels per day in recent months versus pre-war levels near 1.5-2 million. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel and WTI over $100 amid tanker attacks and restricted Hormuz traffic carrying about 20% of global seaborne oil, heightening market-implied odds of further escalation. Trader focus centers on whether Washington pursues ground operations or sustained control amid ongoing retaliatory strikes and Iran's sanctions-zone declarations, with oil price volatility and energy supply metrics serving as key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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