Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9 12:00 PM ET, with the <40 outcome at 100% implied probability, driven by verified trackers showing just 34 total posts to date—averaging about 11 per day, including 13 on May 7 amid low-key philosophical quips and reposts. This reflects Musk's recent muted social media rhythm, likely tied to his high-profile role leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where official duties like federal employee communications have taken precedence over prolific tweeting. Historical patterns from prior weeks (e.g., 16/day during OpenAI trial) underscore the shift, with the market set to resolve shortly after May 9 noon ET. An upset would require an improbable 6+ post surge in the final hours, defying his current subdued engagement trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,781,978 Vol.
$1,781,978 Vol.
9 mai 2026
<40
Yes
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,781,978 Vol.
$1,781,978 Vol.
9 mai 2026
<40
$618,409 Vol.
Yes
40-64
$328,293 Vol.
No
65-89
$468,715 Vol.
No
90-114
$132,797 Vol.
No
115-139
$61,671 Vol.
No
140-164
$42,457 Vol.
No
165-189
$41,492 Vol.
No
190-214
$34,570 Vol.
No
215-239
$26,657 Vol.
No
240+
$26,917 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9 12:00 PM ET, with the <40 outcome at 100% implied probability, driven by verified trackers showing just 34 total posts to date—averaging about 11 per day, including 13 on May 7 amid low-key philosophical quips and reposts. This reflects Musk's recent muted social media rhythm, likely tied to his high-profile role leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where official duties like federal employee communications have taken precedence over prolific tweeting. Historical patterns from prior weeks (e.g., 16/day during OpenAI trial) underscore the shift, with the market set to resolve shortly after May 9 noon ET. An upset would require an improbable 6+ post surge in the final hours, defying his current subdued engagement trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,781,978Date de fin
9 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9 12:00 PM ET, with the <40 outcome at 100% implied probability, driven by verified trackers showing just 34 total posts to date—averaging about 11 per day, including 13 on May 7 amid low-key philosophical quips and reposts. This reflects Musk's recent muted social media rhythm, likely tied to his high-profile role leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where official duties like federal employee communications have taken precedence over prolific tweeting. Historical patterns from prior weeks (e.g., 16/day during OpenAI trial) underscore the shift, with the market set to resolve shortly after May 9 noon ET. An upset would require an improbable 6+ post surge in the final hours, defying his current subdued engagement trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,781,978Date de fin
9 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9 12:00 PM ET, with the <40 outcome at 100% implied probability, driven by verified trackers showing just 34 total posts to date—averaging about 11 per day, including 13 on May 7 amid low-key philosophical quips and reposts. This reflects Musk's recent muted social media rhythm, likely tied to his high-profile role leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where official duties like federal employee communications have taken precedence over prolific tweeting. Historical patterns from prior weeks (e.g., 16/day during OpenAI trial) underscore the shift, with the market set to resolve shortly after May 9 noon ET. An upset would require an improbable 6+ post surge in the final hours, defying his current subdued engagement trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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