Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 Vol.
$553,270 Vol.
17 août 2026
<40
Oui
40-64
Non
65-89
Non
90-114
Non
115-139
Non
140-164
Non
165-189
Non
190-214
Non
215-239
Non
240+
Non
<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 Vol.
$553,270 Vol.
17 août 2026
<40
$167,892 Vol.
Oui
40-64
$113,852 Vol.
Non
65-89
$116,364 Vol.
Non
90-114
$69,008 Vol.
Non
115-139
$48,700 Vol.
Non
140-164
$16,923 Vol.
Non
165-189
$8,347 Vol.
Non
190-214
$3,264 Vol.
Non
215-239
$4,806 Vol.
Non
240+
$4,113 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$553,270Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$553,270Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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