Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a near-certain 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 200-219 times on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24 12:00 PM ET, driven by real-time trackers logging 184 posts through the first seven days at a steady daily average of 26, with April 24 activity—featuring viral replies on AI reasoning, political maps, and cultural critiques—projecting a final tally comfortably within range before cutoff. This reflects Musk's predictable high-volume tweeting cadence, amplified by ongoing engagement on Grok advancements and social commentary, mirroring historical patterns where he averages 25-35 posts daily amid pop culture buzz. An upset would require an unprecedented final-hour spree exceeding 35 additional posts, improbable given time constraints and his typical rhythm, though late-breaking news could spur minor shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour200-219 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,686,871 Vol.
$11,686,871 Vol.
<20
Non
20-39
Non
40-59
Non
60-79
Non
80-99
Non
100-119
Non
120-139
Non
140-159
Non
160-179
Non
180-199
Non
200-219
Oui
220-239
Non
240-259
Non
260-279
Non
280-299
Non
300-319
Non
320-339
Non
340-359
Non
360-379
Non
380-399
Non
400-419
Non
420-439
Non
440-459
Non
460-479
Non
480-499
Non
500-519
Non
520-539
Non
540-559
Non
560-579
Non
580+
Non
200-219 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,686,871 Vol.
$11,686,871 Vol.
<20
Non
20-39
Non
40-59
Non
60-79
Non
80-99
Non
100-119
Non
120-139
Non
140-159
Non
160-179
Non
180-199
Non
200-219
Oui
220-239
Non
240-259
Non
260-279
Non
280-299
Non
300-319
Non
320-339
Non
340-359
Non
360-379
Non
380-399
Non
400-419
Non
420-439
Non
440-459
Non
460-479
Non
480-499
Non
500-519
Non
520-539
Non
540-559
Non
560-579
Non
580+
Non
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a near-certain 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 200-219 times on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24 12:00 PM ET, driven by real-time trackers logging 184 posts through the first seven days at a steady daily average of 26, with April 24 activity—featuring viral replies on AI reasoning, political maps, and cultural critiques—projecting a final tally comfortably within range before cutoff. This reflects Musk's predictable high-volume tweeting cadence, amplified by ongoing engagement on Grok advancements and social commentary, mirroring historical patterns where he averages 25-35 posts daily amid pop culture buzz. An upset would require an unprecedented final-hour spree exceeding 35 additional posts, improbable given time constraints and his typical rhythm, though late-breaking news could spur minor shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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