Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above consensus forecasts around 4%—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft. This volatility has shifted trader focus toward mean reversion for the May reading, scheduled for release June 25, with Polymarket odds placing the highest implied probability (over 59% combined) on declines exceeding 2%. Core capital goods ex-aircraft showed softer underlying trends, while broader indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and business spending proxies suggest moderating demand. The closely distributed probabilities across negative buckets underscore uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions, with any upside surprise hinging on sustained transportation or defense orders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<-4% 99.6%
-4 % – -2 % <1%
-2 % – 0 % <1%
0 %–2 % <1%
$92,857 Vol.
$92,857 Vol.
25 juin 2026
<-4%
Oui
-4 % – -2 %
Non
-2 % – 0 %
Non
0 %–2 %
Non
2 %–4 %
Non
4 %–6 %
Non
6 %-8 %
Non
8 %+
Non
<-4% 99.6%
-4 % – -2 % <1%
-2 % – 0 % <1%
0 %–2 % <1%
$92,857 Vol.
$92,857 Vol.
25 juin 2026
<-4%
$18,794 Vol.
Oui
-4 % – -2 %
$22,177 Vol.
Non
-2 % – 0 %
$3,094 Vol.
Non
0 %–2 %
$12,438 Vol.
Non
2 %–4 %
$19,020 Vol.
Non
4 %–6 %
$9,649 Vol.
Non
6 %-8 %
$5,085 Vol.
Non
8 %+
$2,601 Vol.
Non
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above consensus forecasts around 4%—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft. This volatility has shifted trader focus toward mean reversion for the May reading, scheduled for release June 25, with Polymarket odds placing the highest implied probability (over 59% combined) on declines exceeding 2%. Core capital goods ex-aircraft showed softer underlying trends, while broader indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and business spending proxies suggest moderating demand. The closely distributed probabilities across negative buckets underscore uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions, with any upside surprise hinging on sustained transportation or defense orders.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$92,857Date de fin
25 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above consensus forecasts around 4%—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft. This volatility has shifted trader focus toward mean reversion for the May reading, scheduled for release June 25, with Polymarket odds placing the highest implied probability (over 59% combined) on declines exceeding 2%. Core capital goods ex-aircraft showed softer underlying trends, while broader indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and business spending proxies suggest moderating demand. The closely distributed probabilities across negative buckets underscore uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions, with any upside surprise hinging on sustained transportation or defense orders.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$92,857Date de fin
25 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above consensus forecasts around 4%—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft. This volatility has shifted trader focus toward mean reversion for the May reading, scheduled for release June 25, with Polymarket odds placing the highest implied probability (over 59% combined) on declines exceeding 2%. Core capital goods ex-aircraft showed softer underlying trends, while broader indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and business spending proxies suggest moderating demand. The closely distributed probabilities across negative buckets underscore uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions, with any upside surprise hinging on sustained transportation or defense orders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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