Several open-seat and incumbent-matchup gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature narrow polling margins and shifting voter coalitions that keep multiple states in contention for the smallest victory margin. Georgia's open race after term limits on the incumbent draws attention due to its recent partisan shifts and competitive Democratic recruitment, while Texas shows tightening single-digit gaps between the Republican incumbent and challenger amid recent surveys. Iowa's open contest pits a strong Democratic recruit against a Republican nominee following a contentious primary, and similar dynamics appear in Wisconsin and Vermont. Trader consensus on these outcomes reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, economic factors, and late-cycle developments that could compress or widen final margins before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGeorgia 24.9%
Texas 22.1%
Iowa 11.9%
Wisconsin 11.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Georgia
22%
Texas
22%
Iowa
12%
Wisconsin
11%
Ohio
11%
Vermont
10%
Kansas
8%
Nevada
7%
Floride
6%
Michigan
5%
Oregon
4%
Alaska
4%
Minnesota
3%
Arizona
2%
New Mexico
2%
Colorado
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Maine
1%
Georgia 24.9%
Texas 22.1%
Iowa 11.9%
Wisconsin 11.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Georgia
$272 Vol.
22%
Texas
$1,564 Vol.
22%
Iowa
$1,475 Vol.
12%
Wisconsin
$380 Vol.
11%
Ohio
$412 Vol.
11%
Vermont
$171 Vol.
10%
Kansas
$1,057 Vol.
8%
Nevada
$1,986 Vol.
7%
Floride
$193 Vol.
6%
Michigan
$324 Vol.
5%
Oregon
$314 Vol.
4%
Alaska
$201 Vol.
4%
Minnesota
$209 Vol.
3%
Arizona
$259 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$189 Vol.
2%
Colorado
$238 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$250 Vol.
2%
Maine
$350 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat and incumbent-matchup gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature narrow polling margins and shifting voter coalitions that keep multiple states in contention for the smallest victory margin. Georgia's open race after term limits on the incumbent draws attention due to its recent partisan shifts and competitive Democratic recruitment, while Texas shows tightening single-digit gaps between the Republican incumbent and challenger amid recent surveys. Iowa's open contest pits a strong Democratic recruit against a Republican nominee following a contentious primary, and similar dynamics appear in Wisconsin and Vermont. Trader consensus on these outcomes reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, economic factors, and late-cycle developments that could compress or widen final margins before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,843Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat and incumbent-matchup gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature narrow polling margins and shifting voter coalitions that keep multiple states in contention for the smallest victory margin. Georgia's open race after term limits on the incumbent draws attention due to its recent partisan shifts and competitive Democratic recruitment, while Texas shows tightening single-digit gaps between the Republican incumbent and challenger amid recent surveys. Iowa's open contest pits a strong Democratic recruit against a Republican nominee following a contentious primary, and similar dynamics appear in Wisconsin and Vermont. Trader consensus on these outcomes reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, economic factors, and late-cycle developments that could compress or widen final margins before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,843Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several open-seat and incumbent-matchup gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature narrow polling margins and shifting voter coalitions that keep multiple states in contention for the smallest victory margin. Georgia's open race after term limits on the incumbent draws attention due to its recent partisan shifts and competitive Democratic recruitment, while Texas shows tightening single-digit gaps between the Republican incumbent and challenger amid recent surveys. Iowa's open contest pits a strong Democratic recruit against a Republican nominee following a contentious primary, and similar dynamics appear in Wisconsin and Vermont. Trader consensus on these outcomes reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, economic factors, and late-cycle developments that could compress or widen final margins before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?
23%
La course au Sénat de l'Iowa en 2026 sera-t-elle serrée à moins de 5 % ?
86%
Oui
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le vote populaire lors des élections de mi-mandat à la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis de 2026 avec une avance comprise entre 8 % et 10 % ?
27%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes