SpaceX’s Flight 13 in late July 2026 delivered the strongest signal yet for an upper-stage catch, with Ship 40 executing a precise flip-burn and soft Indian Ocean splashdown that Elon Musk confirmed would have met tower-arm criteria. This built on repeated Super Heavy booster catches and V3 improvements in heat-shield performance and Raptor reliability. Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the first orbital-class attempt but later revised the timeline to “a few months,” citing the need for additional data, regulatory approval of an expanded landing zone, and possible reuse of a prior ship. Flight 14 preparations continue, with an orbital profile, Starlink deployment, and tower return still the leading plan, though technical or licensing delays could push the first catch into late 2026. Traders are weighing these verified milestones against the compressed windows for September or October resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
8%
31 octobre 2026
48%
$1,968 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$74 Vol.
8%
31 octobre 2026
$12 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX’s Flight 13 in late July 2026 delivered the strongest signal yet for an upper-stage catch, with Ship 40 executing a precise flip-burn and soft Indian Ocean splashdown that Elon Musk confirmed would have met tower-arm criteria. This built on repeated Super Heavy booster catches and V3 improvements in heat-shield performance and Raptor reliability. Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the first orbital-class attempt but later revised the timeline to “a few months,” citing the need for additional data, regulatory approval of an expanded landing zone, and possible reuse of a prior ship. Flight 14 preparations continue, with an orbital profile, Starlink deployment, and tower return still the leading plan, though technical or licensing delays could push the first catch into late 2026. Traders are weighing these verified milestones against the compressed windows for September or October resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volume
$1,968Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX’s Flight 13 in late July 2026 delivered the strongest signal yet for an upper-stage catch, with Ship 40 executing a precise flip-burn and soft Indian Ocean splashdown that Elon Musk confirmed would have met tower-arm criteria. This built on repeated Super Heavy booster catches and V3 improvements in heat-shield performance and Raptor reliability. Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the first orbital-class attempt but later revised the timeline to “a few months,” citing the need for additional data, regulatory approval of an expanded landing zone, and possible reuse of a prior ship. Flight 14 preparations continue, with an orbital profile, Starlink deployment, and tower return still the leading plan, though technical or licensing delays could push the first catch into late 2026. Traders are weighing these verified milestones against the compressed windows for September or October resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$1,968Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...SpaceX’s Flight 13 in late July 2026 delivered the strongest signal yet for an upper-stage catch, with Ship 40 executing a precise flip-burn and soft Indian Ocean splashdown that Elon Musk confirmed would have met tower-arm criteria. This built on repeated Super Heavy booster catches and V3 improvements in heat-shield performance and Raptor reliability. Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the first orbital-class attempt but later revised the timeline to “a few months,” citing the need for additional data, regulatory approval of an expanded landing zone, and possible reuse of a prior ship. Flight 14 preparations continue, with an orbital profile, Starlink deployment, and tower return still the leading plan, though technical or licensing delays could push the first catch into late 2026. Traders are weighing these verified milestones against the compressed windows for September or October resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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