Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus—has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around 4.3-4.9%, with those ranges commanding over 98% combined implied probability. Persistent weakness in household consumption and private investment amid the property downturn continues to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech output provide partial offsets. Elevated energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have further pressured margins, though easing oil prices may ease some of that drag. Markets price in modest fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical adjustments ahead of key data releases, consistent with authorities’ 4.5-5% full-year target, while assigning low odds to sharper rebounds or deeper contractions absent major policy shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4.6-4.9% 56%
4.3-4.6% 42%
4.0-4.3% 1.7%
5.2-5.5% 1.6%
$21,302 Vol.
$21,302 Vol.
20 oct. 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
2%
4.3-4.6%
42%
4.6-4.9%
56%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
2%
5.5%+
1%
4.6-4.9% 56%
4.3-4.6% 42%
4.0-4.3% 1.7%
5.2-5.5% 1.6%
$21,302 Vol.
$21,302 Vol.
20 oct. 2026
<3.4%
$934 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,379 Vol.
2%
4.3-4.6%
$5,098 Vol.
42%
4.6-4.9%
$7,929 Vol.
56%
4.9-5.2%
$2,724 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$861 Vol.
2%
5.5%+
$1,002 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus—has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around 4.3-4.9%, with those ranges commanding over 98% combined implied probability. Persistent weakness in household consumption and private investment amid the property downturn continues to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech output provide partial offsets. Elevated energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have further pressured margins, though easing oil prices may ease some of that drag. Markets price in modest fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical adjustments ahead of key data releases, consistent with authorities’ 4.5-5% full-year target, while assigning low odds to sharper rebounds or deeper contractions absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Marché ouvert : Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$21,302Date de fin
20 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus—has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around 4.3-4.9%, with those ranges commanding over 98% combined implied probability. Persistent weakness in household consumption and private investment amid the property downturn continues to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech output provide partial offsets. Elevated energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have further pressured margins, though easing oil prices may ease some of that drag. Markets price in modest fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical adjustments ahead of key data releases, consistent with authorities’ 4.5-5% full-year target, while assigning low odds to sharper rebounds or deeper contractions absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$21,302Date de fin
20 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus—has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around 4.3-4.9%, with those ranges commanding over 98% combined implied probability. Persistent weakness in household consumption and private investment amid the property downturn continues to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech output provide partial offsets. Elevated energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have further pressured margins, though easing oil prices may ease some of that drag. Markets price in modest fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical adjustments ahead of key data releases, consistent with authorities’ 4.5-5% full-year target, while assigning low odds to sharper rebounds or deeper contractions absent major policy shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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