**Traders assign a 96% probability that Canada will not expel the U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such a step between close allies and explicit signals from Ottawa.** Public frustration has produced a petition with over 260,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra to be declared persona non grata over his defense of U.S. tariffs and comments on annexation rhetoric, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has stated it will not pursue removal. Expulsions remain exceptional tools reserved for documented interference, as seen in prior cases involving China and India, rather than trade disputes or diplomatic friction. Bilateral contact continues amid ongoing tariff negotiations, and no parliamentary or executive action has advanced the petition toward formal consideration. A sudden breakdown in talks or an unprecedented incident could still shift the timeline, but current patterns indicate continuity through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 96% probability that Canada will not expel the U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such a step between close allies and explicit signals from Ottawa.** Public frustration has produced a petition with over 260,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra to be declared persona non grata over his defense of U.S. tariffs and comments on annexation rhetoric, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has stated it will not pursue removal. Expulsions remain exceptional tools reserved for documented interference, as seen in prior cases involving China and India, rather than trade disputes or diplomatic friction. Bilateral contact continues amid ongoing tariff negotiations, and no parliamentary or executive action has advanced the petition toward formal consideration. A sudden breakdown in talks or an unprecedented incident could still shift the timeline, but current patterns indicate continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ET
Volume
$106Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 96% probability that Canada will not expel the U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such a step between close allies and explicit signals from Ottawa.** Public frustration has produced a petition with over 260,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra to be declared persona non grata over his defense of U.S. tariffs and comments on annexation rhetoric, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has stated it will not pursue removal. Expulsions remain exceptional tools reserved for documented interference, as seen in prior cases involving China and India, rather than trade disputes or diplomatic friction. Bilateral contact continues amid ongoing tariff negotiations, and no parliamentary or executive action has advanced the petition toward formal consideration. A sudden breakdown in talks or an unprecedented incident could still shift the timeline, but current patterns indicate continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$106Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 96% probability that Canada will not expel the U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such a step between close allies and explicit signals from Ottawa.** Public frustration has produced a petition with over 260,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra to be declared persona non grata over his defense of U.S. tariffs and comments on annexation rhetoric, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has stated it will not pursue removal. Expulsions remain exceptional tools reserved for documented interference, as seen in prior cases involving China and India, rather than trade disputes or diplomatic friction. Bilateral contact continues amid ongoing tariff negotiations, and no parliamentary or executive action has advanced the petition toward formal consideration. A sudden breakdown in talks or an unprecedented incident could still shift the timeline, but current patterns indicate continuity through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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