Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August and early September 2026 showing him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low 20s and single-digit results for other names. This positioning reflects sustained PT strength in the Northeast, favorable evaluations of the current federal administration among Sergipe voters, and limited traction for challengers in the state electorate ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 96.9% implied probability of finishing first locally, consistent with these patterns. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, new candidate momentum, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLula 96.9%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Clariana Barao 1.4%
Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%
$15,448 Vol.
$15,448 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Clariana Barao
1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 96.9%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Clariana Barao 1.4%
Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%
$15,448 Vol.
$15,448 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula
$8,556 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$695 Vol.
2%
Clariana Barao
$1,119 Vol.
1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
$506 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$528 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$506 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$528 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$534 Vol.
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
$514 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$447 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$522 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$522 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August and early September 2026 showing him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low 20s and single-digit results for other names. This positioning reflects sustained PT strength in the Northeast, favorable evaluations of the current federal administration among Sergipe voters, and limited traction for challengers in the state electorate ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 96.9% implied probability of finishing first locally, consistent with these patterns. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, new candidate momentum, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$15,448Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August and early September 2026 showing him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low 20s and single-digit results for other names. This positioning reflects sustained PT strength in the Northeast, favorable evaluations of the current federal administration among Sergipe voters, and limited traction for challengers in the state electorate ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 96.9% implied probability of finishing first locally, consistent with these patterns. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, new candidate momentum, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,448Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August and early September 2026 showing him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low 20s and single-digit results for other names. This positioning reflects sustained PT strength in the Northeast, favorable evaluations of the current federal administration among Sergipe voters, and limited traction for challengers in the state electorate ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 96.9% implied probability of finishing first locally, consistent with these patterns. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, new candidate momentum, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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