**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round polling at 30-38% in recent Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August and early September 2026, ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula at 29-33%, with other candidates in single digits.** São Paulo’s large electorate and right-leaning base, bolstered by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and local PL organization, underpin the 84.5% trader-implied probability for Flávio to finish first locally. Lula’s 14.2% reflects comparatively softer support in the state despite national competitiveness. Recent campaign launches, the July PL convention in São Paulo, and planned September 7 mobilization events have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while minor candidates remain marginal in state-specific data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlavio Bolsonaro 84%
Lula 14.8%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
84%
Lula
15%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 84%
Lula 14.8%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,633 Vol.
84%
Lula
$6,420 Vol.
15%
Pablo Marçal
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,350 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
$543 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round polling at 30-38% in recent Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August and early September 2026, ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula at 29-33%, with other candidates in single digits.** São Paulo’s large electorate and right-leaning base, bolstered by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and local PL organization, underpin the 84.5% trader-implied probability for Flávio to finish first locally. Lula’s 14.2% reflects comparatively softer support in the state despite national competitiveness. Recent campaign launches, the July PL convention in São Paulo, and planned September 7 mobilization events have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while minor candidates remain marginal in state-specific data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$19,878Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round polling at 30-38% in recent Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August and early September 2026, ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula at 29-33%, with other candidates in single digits.** São Paulo’s large electorate and right-leaning base, bolstered by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and local PL organization, underpin the 84.5% trader-implied probability for Flávio to finish first locally. Lula’s 14.2% reflects comparatively softer support in the state despite national competitiveness. Recent campaign launches, the July PL convention in São Paulo, and planned September 7 mobilization events have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while minor candidates remain marginal in state-specific data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,878Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round polling at 30-38% in recent Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August and early September 2026, ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula at 29-33%, with other candidates in single digits.** São Paulo’s large electorate and right-leaning base, bolstered by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and local PL organization, underpin the 84.5% trader-implied probability for Flávio to finish first locally. Lula’s 14.2% reflects comparatively softer support in the state despite national competitiveness. Recent campaign launches, the July PL convention in São Paulo, and planned September 7 mobilization events have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while minor candidates remain marginal in state-specific data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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