Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to multiple recent state-level polls, reflecting the southern state's consistent conservative alignment and strong support for PL candidates. Local surveys from July and August 2026 show him at 45-52% against Lula's 20-25%, with remaining contenders such as Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury in low single digits. This regional preference stems from longstanding voter patterns favoring bolsonarista positions on security, fiscal policy, and institutional issues, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus prices this outcome near certainty while leaving room for late shifts from turnout surges, candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen campaign events that could narrow margins in the final weeks.