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icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná
Élections·Élection Principale

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná
Élections·Élection Principale

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.1%

Renan Santos <1%

Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.1%

Renan Santos <1%

Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,997 Vol.

95%

icon for Lula

Lula

$330 Vol.

3%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$336 Vol.

1%

icon for Écrivain Augusto Cury

Écrivain Augusto Cury

$516 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$413 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$511 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$544 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$516 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$467 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$517 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$511 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi

Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi

$434 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Paraná trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s consistent conservative leanings and strong backing for the Liberal Party platform in recent cycles. Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son after his own ineligibility and arrest has consolidated right-wing support, with Flávio’s July 2026 party convention and alliances reinforcing visibility in the South region. Limited national polling differentiation and low visibility for alternatives such as Lula, Ronaldo Caiado, or independents further embed the frontrunner position. Potential shifts could arise from late alliance realignments, turnout surges among centrist voters, or unforeseen legal or health developments affecting major candidates before election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,624
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Paraná trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s consistent conservative leanings and strong backing for the Liberal Party platform in recent cycles. Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son after his own ineligibility and arrest has consolidated right-wing support, with Flávio’s July 2026 party convention and alliances reinforcing visibility in the South region. Limited national polling differentiation and low visibility for alternatives such as Lula, Ronaldo Caiado, or independents further embed the frontrunner position. Potential shifts could arise from late alliance realignments, turnout surges among centrist voters, or unforeseen legal or health developments affecting major candidates before election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,624
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?

Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?

85%
Oui
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

90%
Oui
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en provenance de Bahia ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en provenance de Bahia ?

97%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 95%, suivi de « Lula » à 3%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 95¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 17, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná » est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 95%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Lula » à 3%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.