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icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais

Lula 79%

Flavio Bolsonaro 22.3%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$19,429 Vol.

Lula 79%

Flavio Bolsonaro 22.3%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$19,429 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$6,599 Vol.

79%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$4,293 Vol.

22%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,452 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$844 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$525 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$485 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$484 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$608 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$473 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$491 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$649 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$576 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$1,951 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a clear lead in recent Minas Gerais-specific polls for the 2026 presidential first round, typically at 37-39% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 30-34%, with Romeu Zema and others in single digits. This state-level edge, consistent across Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data surveys through late August, underpins trader consensus on Lula's high probability of finishing first. Minas Gerais remains a pivotal swing electorate where recent campaign launches by leading candidates and the start of free broadcast time have reinforced Lula's positioning without major shifts. Flavio Bolsonaro trails as the main alternative but has not closed the gap sufficiently in state data, while fragmented opposition support limits other contenders. Market pricing reflects these polling patterns and historical state dynamics ahead of the October vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,429
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a clear lead in recent Minas Gerais-specific polls for the 2026 presidential first round, typically at 37-39% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 30-34%, with Romeu Zema and others in single digits. This state-level edge, consistent across Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data surveys through late August, underpins trader consensus on Lula's high probability of finishing first. Minas Gerais remains a pivotal swing electorate where recent campaign launches by leading candidates and the start of free broadcast time have reinforced Lula's positioning without major shifts. Flavio Bolsonaro trails as the main alternative but has not closed the gap sufficiently in state data, while fragmented opposition support limits other contenders. Market pricing reflects these polling patterns and historical state dynamics ahead of the October vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,429
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

90%
Oui
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

81%
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au prochain scrutin présidentiel au Brésil à Tocantins ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au prochain scrutin présidentiel au Brésil à Tocantins ?

68%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Lula » à 79%, suivi de « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 22%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 79¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 79% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais » a généré $19.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais » est « Lula » à 79%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 79% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 22%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Minas Gerais » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.