Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round, driven by sustained polling advantages of 58-62% in recent state surveys against a fragmented field led by Flávio Bolsonaro at 20-25%. High government approval ratings near 65% in the state reflect entrenched voter support in this Northeast stronghold, where the incumbent has historically outperformed national averages. Opposition candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register in single digits or lower, with no recent polling shifts narrowing the gap. The first-round structure favors the frontrunner absent major late developments, though voter volatility remains possible given that up to 16% in one survey indicated their choice could still change before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLula 97.0%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$13,480 Vol.
$13,480 Vol.
Lula
97%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 97.0%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$13,480 Vol.
$13,480 Vol.
Lula
97%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round, driven by sustained polling advantages of 58-62% in recent state surveys against a fragmented field led by Flávio Bolsonaro at 20-25%. High government approval ratings near 65% in the state reflect entrenched voter support in this Northeast stronghold, where the incumbent has historically outperformed national averages. Opposition candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register in single digits or lower, with no recent polling shifts narrowing the gap. The first-round structure favors the frontrunner absent major late developments, though voter volatility remains possible given that up to 16% in one survey indicated their choice could still change before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en Paraíba ?
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