Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Espírito Santo first-round polling for the October 4, 2026 presidential election, with recent state surveys showing him at 35–37% against Lula’s 30–34%. Traders price this outcome at 93.5% implied probability due to the state’s consistent support for the Bolsonaro family in prior cycles, combined with Lula administration disapproval ratings above 50%. Fragmented backing for other names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema has not narrowed the gap. A late national surge for Flávio and ongoing right-wing mobilization reinforce the positioning. Potential shifts could stem from unresolved legal inquiries, turnout changes among undecided voters, or unexpected campaign events in the final weeks before the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 4.5%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi 2.4%
Hertz Dias <1%
$20,344 Vol.
$20,344 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
2%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 4.5%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi 2.4%
Hertz Dias <1%
$20,344 Vol.
$20,344 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
2%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Espírito Santo first-round polling for the October 4, 2026 presidential election, with recent state surveys showing him at 35–37% against Lula’s 30–34%. Traders price this outcome at 93.5% implied probability due to the state’s consistent support for the Bolsonaro family in prior cycles, combined with Lula administration disapproval ratings above 50%. Fragmented backing for other names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema has not narrowed the gap. A late national surge for Flávio and ongoing right-wing mobilization reinforce the positioning. Potential shifts could stem from unresolved legal inquiries, turnout changes among undecided voters, or unexpected campaign events in the final weeks before the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au prochain scrutin présidentiel au Brésil à Tocantins ?
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