Recent model releases and benchmark leadership are driving the tight market odds, with Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 trading near the front amid strong open-weight performance on coding, agentic, and long-context tasks. Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 launch—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE with agent-swarm capabilities—sparked global attention and revenue momentum, supporting its ongoing $50 billion funding round and confidential Hong Kong IPO filing. Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 series and enterprise deployments keep it competitive, while DeepSeek’s efficiency focus and Alibaba’s massive Hugging Face downloads plus infrastructure investments create a fragmented but fast-moving field. Traders are watching October developer conferences and any new capability claims, as small benchmark shifts or adoption metrics could quickly reorder the crowded leaderboard.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAlibaba 46%
Moonshot 32%
Z.ai 16%
ByteDance 2.9%
$12,557 Vol.
$12,557 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Alibaba
46%
Moonshot
32%
Z.ai
16%
ByteDance
6%
Tencent
3%
Baidu
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 46%
Moonshot 32%
Z.ai 16%
ByteDance 2.9%
$12,557 Vol.
$12,557 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Alibaba
$7,077 Vol.
46%
Moonshot
$1,287 Vol.
32%
Z.ai
$719 Vol.
16%
ByteDance
$591 Vol.
6%
Tencent
$528 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$371 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$321 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$561 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$404 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$343 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark leadership are driving the tight market odds, with Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 trading near the front amid strong open-weight performance on coding, agentic, and long-context tasks. Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 launch—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE with agent-swarm capabilities—sparked global attention and revenue momentum, supporting its ongoing $50 billion funding round and confidential Hong Kong IPO filing. Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 series and enterprise deployments keep it competitive, while DeepSeek’s efficiency focus and Alibaba’s massive Hugging Face downloads plus infrastructure investments create a fragmented but fast-moving field. Traders are watching October developer conferences and any new capability claims, as small benchmark shifts or adoption metrics could quickly reorder the crowded leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$12,557Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark leadership are driving the tight market odds, with Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 trading near the front amid strong open-weight performance on coding, agentic, and long-context tasks. Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 launch—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE with agent-swarm capabilities—sparked global attention and revenue momentum, supporting its ongoing $50 billion funding round and confidential Hong Kong IPO filing. Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 series and enterprise deployments keep it competitive, while DeepSeek’s efficiency focus and Alibaba’s massive Hugging Face downloads plus infrastructure investments create a fragmented but fast-moving field. Traders are watching October developer conferences and any new capability claims, as small benchmark shifts or adoption metrics could quickly reorder the crowded leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$12,557Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and benchmark leadership are driving the tight market odds, with Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 trading near the front amid strong open-weight performance on coding, agentic, and long-context tasks. Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 launch—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE with agent-swarm capabilities—sparked global attention and revenue momentum, supporting its ongoing $50 billion funding round and confidential Hong Kong IPO filing. Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 series and enterprise deployments keep it competitive, while DeepSeek’s efficiency focus and Alibaba’s massive Hugging Face downloads plus infrastructure investments create a fragmented but fast-moving field. Traders are watching October developer conferences and any new capability claims, as small benchmark shifts or adoption metrics could quickly reorder the crowded leaderboard.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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