The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, produced a final official seat total of 153 in the Abgeordnetenhaus after the Landeswahlausschuss certified results on October 12. A recount in Spandau constituency 1 shifted one direct mandate from the CDU to the AfD, which in turn reduced overhang and leveling mandates across parties under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system with its 5% threshold and constituency exemptions. This adjustment lowered the chamber from an initial projection of 158 seats to 153, aligning precisely with the market’s leading range. Trader consensus reflects the completed vote count and institutional confirmation rather than pre-election projections. Late legal challenges to the recount or additional verification steps could theoretically alter the total, though such outcomes remain improbable once the official certification is issued.