**Banxico’s policy rate has remained at 6.50% since the final 25-basis-point cut in May 2026, with the board signaling in August that the current restrictive stance remains appropriate amid gradual disinflation.** August 2026 headline inflation rose to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased modestly to 3.88%; both measures remain above the 3% target, supporting trader expectations of no change at the November meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, reinforced by forward guidance that further easing is unlikely before 2027 and by the bank’s revised projection for target convergence only in late 2027. A clear shift in the inflation trajectory or unexpected labor-market weakness could still alter the path, though near-term data releases through October appear unlikely to override the current hold bias.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas de changement 91%
Baisse de 25 points de base 5.7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 2.4%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$13,607 Vol.
$13,607 Vol.
5 nov. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
6%
Pas de changement
91%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
2%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement 91%
Baisse de 25 points de base 5.7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 2.4%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$13,607 Vol.
$13,607 Vol.
5 nov. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$533 Vol.
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$836 Vol.
6%
Pas de changement
$11,382 Vol.
91%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$523 Vol.
2%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$334 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s policy rate has remained at 6.50% since the final 25-basis-point cut in May 2026, with the board signaling in August that the current restrictive stance remains appropriate amid gradual disinflation.** August 2026 headline inflation rose to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased modestly to 3.88%; both measures remain above the 3% target, supporting trader expectations of no change at the November meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, reinforced by forward guidance that further easing is unlikely before 2027 and by the bank’s revised projection for target convergence only in late 2027. A clear shift in the inflation trajectory or unexpected labor-market weakness could still alter the path, though near-term data releases through October appear unlikely to override the current hold bias.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$13,607Date de fin
5 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s policy rate has remained at 6.50% since the final 25-basis-point cut in May 2026, with the board signaling in August that the current restrictive stance remains appropriate amid gradual disinflation.** August 2026 headline inflation rose to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased modestly to 3.88%; both measures remain above the 3% target, supporting trader expectations of no change at the November meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, reinforced by forward guidance that further easing is unlikely before 2027 and by the bank’s revised projection for target convergence only in late 2027. A clear shift in the inflation trajectory or unexpected labor-market weakness could still alter the path, though near-term data releases through October appear unlikely to override the current hold bias.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$13,607Date de fin
5 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Banxico’s policy rate has remained at 6.50% since the final 25-basis-point cut in May 2026, with the board signaling in August that the current restrictive stance remains appropriate amid gradual disinflation.** August 2026 headline inflation rose to 3.26% year-over-year from 3.12% in July, while core inflation eased modestly to 3.88%; both measures remain above the 3% target, supporting trader expectations of no change at the November meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, reinforced by forward guidance that further easing is unlikely before 2027 and by the bank’s revised projection for target convergence only in late 2027. A clear shift in the inflation trajectory or unexpected labor-market weakness could still alter the path, though near-term data releases through October appear unlikely to override the current hold bias.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Pas de changement dans les taux d'intérêt de la Banque du Mexique après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?
97%
Oui
La Banque du Brésil réduira-t-elle l'objectif du taux Selic de 25 points de base lors de la réunion de novembre ?
62%
Oui
La Banque du Canada ne changera-t-elle pas le taux cible du financement à un jour lors de l'annonce des taux d'intérêt de décembre ?
41%
Oui
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