Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting because traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering, after which the central bank is expected to pause before the next adjustment. Recent Tokyo core CPI readings at 1.8% year-over-year, alongside broader price pressures from a weak yen and tight labor market, have reinforced the case for gradual tightening, while Governor Ueda’s comments highlight data-dependent vigilance around upside inflation risks rather than a fixed quarterly pace. Political caution from the Takaichi administration and the need to assess post-September impacts on corporate and household activity further support the high probability of a hold in October, with any acceleration likely deferred to December or January.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNo change 83%
25 bps increase 18%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$76,267 Vol.
$76,267 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
83%
25 bps increase
18%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 83%
25 bps increase 18%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$76,267 Vol.
$76,267 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,845 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$6,078 Vol.
<1%
No change
$31,711 Vol.
83%
25 bps increase
$27,477 Vol.
18%
50+ bps increase
$7,156 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting because traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering, after which the central bank is expected to pause before the next adjustment. Recent Tokyo core CPI readings at 1.8% year-over-year, alongside broader price pressures from a weak yen and tight labor market, have reinforced the case for gradual tightening, while Governor Ueda’s comments highlight data-dependent vigilance around upside inflation risks rather than a fixed quarterly pace. Political caution from the Takaichi administration and the need to assess post-September impacts on corporate and household activity further support the high probability of a hold in October, with any acceleration likely deferred to December or January.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$76,267Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting because traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering, after which the central bank is expected to pause before the next adjustment. Recent Tokyo core CPI readings at 1.8% year-over-year, alongside broader price pressures from a weak yen and tight labor market, have reinforced the case for gradual tightening, while Governor Ueda’s comments highlight data-dependent vigilance around upside inflation risks rather than a fixed quarterly pace. Political caution from the Takaichi administration and the need to assess post-September impacts on corporate and household activity further support the high probability of a hold in October, with any acceleration likely deferred to December or January.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$76,267Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting because traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering, after which the central bank is expected to pause before the next adjustment. Recent Tokyo core CPI readings at 1.8% year-over-year, alongside broader price pressures from a weak yen and tight labor market, have reinforced the case for gradual tightening, while Governor Ueda’s comments highlight data-dependent vigilance around upside inflation risks rather than a fixed quarterly pace. Political caution from the Takaichi administration and the need to assess post-September impacts on corporate and household activity further support the high probability of a hold in October, with any acceleration likely deferred to December or January.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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