Recent UK inflation data at 2.6% in June 2026, combined with the Bank of England’s July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Persistent Middle East tensions have introduced upside risks to energy prices, pushing the MPC’s Q4 2026 CPI projection to 3.2% and prompting a cautious, data-dependent stance amid near-stall growth. Forward curves and SONIA futures reflect trader consensus that the committee will await clearer signals on inflation persistence and labor market conditions before adjusting policy. A sharper escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or hotter-than-expected core inflation readings could shift the vote split toward a 25-basis-point hike, while materially weaker growth data might reopen the door to cuts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en septembre ?
Décision de la Banque d'Angleterre en septembre ?
Pas de changement 92%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 8.4%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$158,265 Vol.
$158,265 Vol.
17 sept. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
1%
Pas de changement
92%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
8%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement 92%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 8.4%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$158,265 Vol.
$158,265 Vol.
17 sept. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$10,597 Vol.
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$13,062 Vol.
1%
Pas de changement
$72,454 Vol.
92%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$48,984 Vol.
8%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$13,167 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent UK inflation data at 2.6% in June 2026, combined with the Bank of England’s July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Persistent Middle East tensions have introduced upside risks to energy prices, pushing the MPC’s Q4 2026 CPI projection to 3.2% and prompting a cautious, data-dependent stance amid near-stall growth. Forward curves and SONIA futures reflect trader consensus that the committee will await clearer signals on inflation persistence and labor market conditions before adjusting policy. A sharper escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or hotter-than-expected core inflation readings could shift the vote split toward a 25-basis-point hike, while materially weaker growth data might reopen the door to cuts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$158,265Date de fin
17 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent UK inflation data at 2.6% in June 2026, combined with the Bank of England’s July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Persistent Middle East tensions have introduced upside risks to energy prices, pushing the MPC’s Q4 2026 CPI projection to 3.2% and prompting a cautious, data-dependent stance amid near-stall growth. Forward curves and SONIA futures reflect trader consensus that the committee will await clearer signals on inflation persistence and labor market conditions before adjusting policy. A sharper escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or hotter-than-expected core inflation readings could shift the vote split toward a 25-basis-point hike, while materially weaker growth data might reopen the door to cuts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$158,265Date de fin
17 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK inflation data at 2.6% in June 2026, combined with the Bank of England’s July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Persistent Middle East tensions have introduced upside risks to energy prices, pushing the MPC’s Q4 2026 CPI projection to 3.2% and prompting a cautious, data-dependent stance amid near-stall growth. Forward curves and SONIA futures reflect trader consensus that the committee will await clearer signals on inflation persistence and labor market conditions before adjusting policy. A sharper escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or hotter-than-expected core inflation readings could shift the vote split toward a 25-basis-point hike, while materially weaker growth data might reopen the door to cuts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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