The closely matched Polymarket odds for the Bank of Canada’s December 2026 decision—51.5% no change versus 46.5% for a 25 basis point hike from the current 2.25% overnight rate—reflect balanced trader assessments of inflation persistence against softening growth. Headline CPI held at 3.0% year-over-year in August, above the 2% target, with energy prices and travel costs providing upward pressure even as core measures and grocery inflation eased. Recent labor data showed rising unemployment to 6.5% and net job losses, alongside decelerating activity amid trade tariff uncertainty. Economists largely anticipate an extended hold through year-end before any normalization in 2027, though September BoC communications on inflation risks have kept December tightening in play. The October 19 CPI release and October 28 decision will supply fresh inputs ahead of the final 2026 meeting.