**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and Iranian restrictions have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to levels far below historical norms.** Since the March 2026 closure amid the US-Israel-Iran war, daily transits have averaged roughly 4–7 vessels in late August 2026 per Kpler and UKMTO data, with many movements either dark or limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated routes. This represents a roughly 90–95% decline from pre-conflict baselines of 89–138 vessels per day. Heightened security risks, including projectile attacks and enforcement actions, have driven operators to reroute, abort transits, or operate with AIS off, keeping volumes in the low single digits to low teens. Market-implied odds reflect this sustained suppression through end-August, though any meaningful de-escalation, mine-clearing progress, or policy shift restoring open navigation could alter the trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,482 Vol.
$110,482 Vol.
31 août 2026
0-20
100%
20-40
<1%
40-60
<1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,482 Vol.
$110,482 Vol.
31 août 2026
0-20
$61,187 Vol.
100%
20-40
$14,561 Vol.
<1%
40-60
$15,017 Vol.
<1%
60-80
$11,339 Vol.
<1%
80+
$8,378 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and Iranian restrictions have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to levels far below historical norms.** Since the March 2026 closure amid the US-Israel-Iran war, daily transits have averaged roughly 4–7 vessels in late August 2026 per Kpler and UKMTO data, with many movements either dark or limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated routes. This represents a roughly 90–95% decline from pre-conflict baselines of 89–138 vessels per day. Heightened security risks, including projectile attacks and enforcement actions, have driven operators to reroute, abort transits, or operate with AIS off, keeping volumes in the low single digits to low teens. Market-implied odds reflect this sustained suppression through end-August, though any meaningful de-escalation, mine-clearing progress, or policy shift restoring open navigation could alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$110,482Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and Iranian restrictions have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to levels far below historical norms.** Since the March 2026 closure amid the US-Israel-Iran war, daily transits have averaged roughly 4–7 vessels in late August 2026 per Kpler and UKMTO data, with many movements either dark or limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated routes. This represents a roughly 90–95% decline from pre-conflict baselines of 89–138 vessels per day. Heightened security risks, including projectile attacks and enforcement actions, have driven operators to reroute, abort transits, or operate with AIS off, keeping volumes in the low single digits to low teens. Market-implied odds reflect this sustained suppression through end-August, though any meaningful de-escalation, mine-clearing progress, or policy shift restoring open navigation could alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$110,482Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and Iranian restrictions have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to levels far below historical norms.** Since the March 2026 closure amid the US-Israel-Iran war, daily transits have averaged roughly 4–7 vessels in late August 2026 per Kpler and UKMTO data, with many movements either dark or limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated routes. This represents a roughly 90–95% decline from pre-conflict baselines of 89–138 vessels per day. Heightened security risks, including projectile attacks and enforcement actions, have driven operators to reroute, abort transits, or operate with AIS off, keeping volumes in the low single digits to low teens. Market-implied odds reflect this sustained suppression through end-August, though any meaningful de-escalation, mine-clearing progress, or policy shift restoring open navigation could alter the trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes