Persistent Houthi attacks and maritime threats through late August kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day, with daily counts fluctuating between 27 and 36 in the final week. Trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability for the 25-29 bin aligns with observed averages near 27-30 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, selective dark transits, and partial rerouting incentives. Recent data from sources tracking AIS and military advisories show modest week-over-week gains in Suez-linked volumes, yet tanker flows remained sparse due to targeted strikes and sanctions exposure. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in carrier routing decisions that could alter end-August averages before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb fin août ?
Nombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb fin août ?
25-29 73%
<25 22.4%
30-34 10.0%
35-39 1.8%
$40,640 Vol.
$40,640 Vol.
31 août 2026
<25
22%
25-29
73%
30-34
10%
35-39
2%
40+
<1%
25-29 73%
<25 22.4%
30-34 10.0%
35-39 1.8%
$40,640 Vol.
$40,640 Vol.
31 août 2026
<25
$7,865 Vol.
22%
25-29
$10,182 Vol.
73%
30-34
$10,515 Vol.
10%
35-39
$5,459 Vol.
2%
40+
$6,619 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and maritime threats through late August kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day, with daily counts fluctuating between 27 and 36 in the final week. Trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability for the 25-29 bin aligns with observed averages near 27-30 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, selective dark transits, and partial rerouting incentives. Recent data from sources tracking AIS and military advisories show modest week-over-week gains in Suez-linked volumes, yet tanker flows remained sparse due to targeted strikes and sanctions exposure. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in carrier routing decisions that could alter end-August averages before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$40,640Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETSource de résolution
IMF PortWatchRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and maritime threats through late August kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day, with daily counts fluctuating between 27 and 36 in the final week. Trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability for the 25-29 bin aligns with observed averages near 27-30 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, selective dark transits, and partial rerouting incentives. Recent data from sources tracking AIS and military advisories show modest week-over-week gains in Suez-linked volumes, yet tanker flows remained sparse due to targeted strikes and sanctions exposure. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in carrier routing decisions that could alter end-August averages before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$40,640Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETSource de résolution
IMF PortWatchRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi attacks and maritime threats through late August kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day, with daily counts fluctuating between 27 and 36 in the final week. Trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability for the 25-29 bin aligns with observed averages near 27-30 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, selective dark transits, and partial rerouting incentives. Recent data from sources tracking AIS and military advisories show modest week-over-week gains in Suez-linked volumes, yet tanker flows remained sparse due to targeted strikes and sanctions exposure. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in carrier routing decisions that could alter end-August averages before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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