Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening rapidly through summer 2026, combined with record global ocean heat content peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven the market-implied 90.5% probability for a 1.38–1.41°C August global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This reflects the superposition of anthropogenic warming trends and the climate mode’s typical 0.1–0.2°C boost to monthly means, consistent with July 2026 observations near 1.56°C and ongoing heatwave patterns. Final Copernicus or Berkeley Earth releases could shift the outcome only if substantial downward revisions occur, though model consensus and real-time monitoring make such adjustments unlikely before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAoût 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)
Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Vol.
$20,482 Vol.
31 août 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
7%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Vol.
$20,482 Vol.
31 août 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,484 Vol.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,219 Vol.
7%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening rapidly through summer 2026, combined with record global ocean heat content peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven the market-implied 90.5% probability for a 1.38–1.41°C August global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This reflects the superposition of anthropogenic warming trends and the climate mode’s typical 0.1–0.2°C boost to monthly means, consistent with July 2026 observations near 1.56°C and ongoing heatwave patterns. Final Copernicus or Berkeley Earth releases could shift the outcome only if substantial downward revisions occur, though model consensus and real-time monitoring make such adjustments unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,482Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening rapidly through summer 2026, combined with record global ocean heat content peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven the market-implied 90.5% probability for a 1.38–1.41°C August global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This reflects the superposition of anthropogenic warming trends and the climate mode’s typical 0.1–0.2°C boost to monthly means, consistent with July 2026 observations near 1.56°C and ongoing heatwave patterns. Final Copernicus or Berkeley Earth releases could shift the outcome only if substantial downward revisions occur, though model consensus and real-time monitoring make such adjustments unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,482Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening rapidly through summer 2026, combined with record global ocean heat content peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven the market-implied 90.5% probability for a 1.38–1.41°C August global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This reflects the superposition of anthropogenic warming trends and the climate mode’s typical 0.1–0.2°C boost to monthly means, consistent with July 2026 observations near 1.56°C and ongoing heatwave patterns. Final Copernicus or Berkeley Earth releases could shift the outcome only if substantial downward revisions occur, though model consensus and real-time monitoring make such adjustments unlikely before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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