Recent floor crossings have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government, bringing it closer to majority status through five opposition MPs joining the caucus since November 2025. The most recent was Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026, following earlier defections by Conservatives Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux, plus NDP member Lori Idlout in March. These shifts reflect individual MPs citing alignment on economic priorities and a desire for stability ahead of potential by-elections and ongoing parliamentary sessions. Conservative internal pressures and Liberal recruitment efforts continue to influence speculation about further changes, while broader debates focus on parliamentary math and party discipline without altering the underlying dynamics of minority governance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
May 31
15%
$1,868 Vol.
May 31
$255 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government, bringing it closer to majority status through five opposition MPs joining the caucus since November 2025. The most recent was Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026, following earlier defections by Conservatives Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux, plus NDP member Lori Idlout in March. These shifts reflect individual MPs citing alignment on economic priorities and a desire for stability ahead of potential by-elections and ongoing parliamentary sessions. Conservative internal pressures and Liberal recruitment efforts continue to influence speculation about further changes, while broader debates focus on parliamentary math and party discipline without altering the underlying dynamics of minority governance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$1,868Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government, bringing it closer to majority status through five opposition MPs joining the caucus since November 2025. The most recent was Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026, following earlier defections by Conservatives Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux, plus NDP member Lori Idlout in March. These shifts reflect individual MPs citing alignment on economic priorities and a desire for stability ahead of potential by-elections and ongoing parliamentary sessions. Conservative internal pressures and Liberal recruitment efforts continue to influence speculation about further changes, while broader debates focus on parliamentary math and party discipline without altering the underlying dynamics of minority governance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,868Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent floor crossings have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government, bringing it closer to majority status through five opposition MPs joining the caucus since November 2025. The most recent was Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026, following earlier defections by Conservatives Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux, plus NDP member Lori Idlout in March. These shifts reflect individual MPs citing alignment on economic priorities and a desire for stability ahead of potential by-elections and ongoing parliamentary sessions. Conservative internal pressures and Liberal recruitment efforts continue to influence speculation about further changes, while broader debates focus on parliamentary math and party discipline without altering the underlying dynamics of minority governance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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