Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced from the October 4 first round with roughly 40% of valid votes, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at about 25% and incumbent Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) in third, setting up an October 25 runoff. Pre-election surveys from institutes including IPEN/G6, Quaest, and PoderData consistently showed Aziz leading statewide, with stronger support in the interior offsetting Cidade’s edge in Manaus. Aziz’s prior term as governor, Senate tenure, and coalition spanning PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and PT allies provide broad institutional backing. Maria do Carmo’s performance consolidated opposition votes after Cidade’s elimination. Trader pricing reflects these first-round results and Aziz’s polling advantage heading into the runoff, with limited scope for late shifts absent major developments in the final weeks.