The Trump administration's April 3 budget request for $152 million in FY2027 funding to reopen Alcatraz Island as a Bureau of Prisons secure facility—following a 2025 assessment by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Attorney General Pam Bondi—has failed to convince traders of 2026 operations, with "No" implying 89.5% probability. Congressional appropriations remain uncertain amid Democratic opposition, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's rejection of the plan as "absurd," logistical hurdles from the site's National Park Service historic status, and historical precedents like the 1963 closure due to exorbitant costs. Multi-year renovations, legal transfers, and potential holds in Senate committees make timely reopening improbable, though full budget passage or supplemental funding could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's April 3 budget request for $152 million in FY2027 funding to reopen Alcatraz Island as a Bureau of Prisons secure facility—following a 2025 assessment by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Attorney General Pam Bondi—has failed to convince traders of 2026 operations, with "No" implying 89.5% probability. Congressional appropriations remain uncertain amid Democratic opposition, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's rejection of the plan as "absurd," logistical hurdles from the site's National Park Service historic status, and historical precedents like the 1963 closure due to exorbitant costs. Multi-year renovations, legal transfers, and potential holds in Senate committees make timely reopening improbable, though full budget passage or supplemental funding could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$589Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's April 3 budget request for $152 million in FY2027 funding to reopen Alcatraz Island as a Bureau of Prisons secure facility—following a 2025 assessment by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Attorney General Pam Bondi—has failed to convince traders of 2026 operations, with "No" implying 89.5% probability. Congressional appropriations remain uncertain amid Democratic opposition, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's rejection of the plan as "absurd," logistical hurdles from the site's National Park Service historic status, and historical precedents like the 1963 closure due to exorbitant costs. Multi-year renovations, legal transfers, and potential holds in Senate committees make timely reopening improbable, though full budget passage or supplemental funding could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$589Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's April 3 budget request for $152 million in FY2027 funding to reopen Alcatraz Island as a Bureau of Prisons secure facility—following a 2025 assessment by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Attorney General Pam Bondi—has failed to convince traders of 2026 operations, with "No" implying 89.5% probability. Congressional appropriations remain uncertain amid Democratic opposition, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's rejection of the plan as "absurd," logistical hurdles from the site's National Park Service historic status, and historical precedents like the 1963 closure due to exorbitant costs. Multi-year renovations, legal transfers, and potential holds in Senate committees make timely reopening improbable, though full budget passage or supplemental funding could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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