The strong consensus against an AI-generated artwork reaching $10 million at a major 2026 auction rests on the category’s limited track record, with the verified high remaining $1.08 million for Ai-Da robot’s “A.I. God” portrait at Sotheby’s in late 2024. Subsequent dedicated sales, including Christie’s 2025 Augmented Intelligence event, topped out at $277,200 for a Refik Anadol data painting, while broader contemporary results favor human-led works. Persistent questions around authorship, training data provenance, and collector preferences for traditional pieces have kept demand contained. With only months left and no announced lots or breakthroughs positioned to close the gap, traders view a sudden leap as improbable, though a high-profile institutional endorsement or major capability demonstration could still shift sentiment.