Traders have converged on the 180-199 bracket (50.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk’s X posts from August 4–11, 2026, reflecting his typical mid-August cadence of roughly 25–30 daily posts amid routine engagement with AI, Starlink, and Grok updates. The closely contested 160-179 range (34.5%) accounts for possible slowdowns on the final day, while lower-probability bins above 200 capture upside from viral threads or high-engagement replies. Recent momentum includes a 41-post day on August 9 centered on Starlink bandwidth claims and model rankings, sustaining volume without major external catalysts like earnings calls or policy announcements that historically spike activity. With the window closing August 11, the market prices in steady but not exceptional output consistent with Musk’s established patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourElon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?
180-199 51%
160-179 35%
200-219 13%
220-239 1.6%
$1,634,827 Vol.
$1,634,827 Vol.
11 août 2026
140-159
<1%
160-179
35%
180-199
51%
200-219
13%
220-239
2%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 51%
160-179 35%
200-219 13%
220-239 1.6%
$1,634,827 Vol.
$1,634,827 Vol.
11 août 2026
140-159
$198,835 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$127,625 Vol.
35%
180-199
$92,306 Vol.
51%
200-219
$107,962 Vol.
13%
220-239
$96,439 Vol.
2%
240-259
$105,022 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$105,206 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$98,641 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$93,852 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$57,938 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$39,592 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$45,547 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$26,827 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$24,589 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$6,227 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$14,453 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$6,847 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$6,862 Vol.
<1%
500+
$46,766 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have converged on the 180-199 bracket (50.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk’s X posts from August 4–11, 2026, reflecting his typical mid-August cadence of roughly 25–30 daily posts amid routine engagement with AI, Starlink, and Grok updates. The closely contested 160-179 range (34.5%) accounts for possible slowdowns on the final day, while lower-probability bins above 200 capture upside from viral threads or high-engagement replies. Recent momentum includes a 41-post day on August 9 centered on Starlink bandwidth claims and model rankings, sustaining volume without major external catalysts like earnings calls or policy announcements that historically spike activity. With the window closing August 11, the market prices in steady but not exceptional output consistent with Musk’s established patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$1,634,827Date de fin
11 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have converged on the 180-199 bracket (50.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk’s X posts from August 4–11, 2026, reflecting his typical mid-August cadence of roughly 25–30 daily posts amid routine engagement with AI, Starlink, and Grok updates. The closely contested 160-179 range (34.5%) accounts for possible slowdowns on the final day, while lower-probability bins above 200 capture upside from viral threads or high-engagement replies. Recent momentum includes a 41-post day on August 9 centered on Starlink bandwidth claims and model rankings, sustaining volume without major external catalysts like earnings calls or policy announcements that historically spike activity. With the window closing August 11, the market prices in steady but not exceptional output consistent with Musk’s established patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,634,827Date de fin
11 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have converged on the 180-199 bracket (50.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk’s X posts from August 4–11, 2026, reflecting his typical mid-August cadence of roughly 25–30 daily posts amid routine engagement with AI, Starlink, and Grok updates. The closely contested 160-179 range (34.5%) accounts for possible slowdowns on the final day, while lower-probability bins above 200 capture upside from viral threads or high-engagement replies. Recent momentum includes a 41-post day on August 9 centered on Starlink bandwidth claims and model rankings, sustaining volume without major external catalysts like earnings calls or policy announcements that historically spike activity. With the window closing August 11, the market prices in steady but not exceptional output consistent with Musk’s established patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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