Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 claiming top benchmark scores on coding and agentic tasks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities following its September 3 rollout. Trader consensus reflected in the odds favors Meta at 31.5% implied probability for #2 status by end of October, likely due to its rapid Muse Spark iteration cycle and open research approach, ahead of Google's 23% amid ongoing Gemini delays. These closely matched probabilities across multiple labs highlight uncertainty in benchmark convergence and style control feature adoption, with key catalysts including further capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem traction expected before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMeta 32%
Google 23%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 9%
$22,601 Vol.
$22,601 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Meta
32%
23%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
14%
ByteDance
7%
Alibaba
6%
Z.ai
4%
Mistral
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 32%
Google 23%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 9%
$22,601 Vol.
$22,601 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Meta
$4,857 Vol.
32%
$6,362 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$890 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$1,908 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$655 Vol.
7%
Alibaba
$517 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$493 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$512 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$498 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$501 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$483 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$463 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$553 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$530 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$535 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$512 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$421 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$470 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 claiming top benchmark scores on coding and agentic tasks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities following its September 3 rollout. Trader consensus reflected in the odds favors Meta at 31.5% implied probability for #2 status by end of October, likely due to its rapid Muse Spark iteration cycle and open research approach, ahead of Google's 23% amid ongoing Gemini delays. These closely matched probabilities across multiple labs highlight uncertainty in benchmark convergence and style control feature adoption, with key catalysts including further capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem traction expected before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$22,601Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 claiming top benchmark scores on coding and agentic tasks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities following its September 3 rollout. Trader consensus reflected in the odds favors Meta at 31.5% implied probability for #2 status by end of October, likely due to its rapid Muse Spark iteration cycle and open research approach, ahead of Google's 23% amid ongoing Gemini delays. These closely matched probabilities across multiple labs highlight uncertainty in benchmark convergence and style control feature adoption, with key catalysts including further capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem traction expected before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$22,601Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 claiming top benchmark scores on coding and agentic tasks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities following its September 3 rollout. Trader consensus reflected in the odds favors Meta at 31.5% implied probability for #2 status by end of October, likely due to its rapid Muse Spark iteration cycle and open research approach, ahead of Google's 23% amid ongoing Gemini delays. These closely matched probabilities across multiple labs highlight uncertainty in benchmark convergence and style control feature adoption, with key catalysts including further capability demonstrations and developer ecosystem traction expected before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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