tetlock
Inscrit mars 2026·0 vues
$120.34
Valeur des positions
$1.69
Plus gros gain
19
Prédictions
Profit/Perte
Jour Précédent
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 actions49¢
92.5¢
$25.22$11.86 (88.78%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 actions$25.22$11.86 (88.78%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 actions56¢
47.5¢
$22.66-$4.06 (-15.18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 actions$22.66-$4.06 (-15.18%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
No 71¢
18.8 actions$14.87$1.51 (11.27%)
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Yes 70¢
19.1 actions$14.41$1.05 (7.86%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Yes 44¢
30.4 actions$11.69-$1.67 (-12.5%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 actions45¢
33¢
$9.80-$3.56 (-26.67%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 actions$9.80-$3.56 (-26.67%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
No 55¢
23.6 actions$8.63-$4.37 (-33.64%)
51.1¢
15.5¢
$8.19-$18.80 (-69.64%)
$8.19-$18.80 (-69.64%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 86¢
2.3 actions$1.92-$0.08 (-4.07%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
No 63.1¢
3.2 actions$1.85-$0.15 (-7.53%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 actions74.9¢
22¢
$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 actions$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
Yes 28¢
6.4 actions$0.48-$1.32 (-73.21%)