Messi’s 38-year-old frame and recent left-hamstring overload from late May have prompted Argentina to manage his minutes carefully during the 2026 World Cup group stage. He returned from the injury layoff via limited cameos in pre-tournament friendlies before starting the opener against Algeria, where his hat-trick goals came from open play rather than set pieces. At this stage, direct free-kick attempts remain infrequent for any player—especially a veteran whose primary threat now shifts toward penalty area movement and link-up play—while opposing defenses prioritize blocking shooting lanes. Trader consensus at roughly 23% for a direct free-kick goal therefore reflects both Messi’s proven conversion history and the realistic constraints of tournament scheduling, fitness protocols, and match context that limit high-quality dead-ball opportunities.