**Mbappé enters the 2026 World Cup with a substantial edge in the head-to-head goals market over Yamal, reflected in the 86.5% implied probability for the Frenchman.** His established World Cup pedigree—12 goals across 14 prior matches, including a final hat-trick—combined with immediate impact in France’s group-stage opener provides a clear foundation for trader positioning. Mbappé scored twice in a 3-1 win over Senegal shortly after the tournament began, extending his status as France’s all-time leading scorer while operating as the primary focal point in attack. Yamal, despite his exceptional talent and breakout profile with Spain, faces a steeper path. The 18-year-old is returning from a significant hamstring injury that sidelined him for Barcelona’s season close and limited his pre-tournament preparation. He has returned to full training but faces cautious minutes management, potentially starting with substitute roles in Spain’s group fixtures. This recovery timeline and lack of prior World Cup exposure contrast with Mbappé’s proven consistency, deeper France squad depth, and multiple high-stakes matches ahead. Additional factors reinforcing the gap include team trajectories—France’s experience and attacking structure versus Spain’s reliance on Yamal’s creativity—and the simple math of goal volume: Mbappé’s historical output and current form make sustained scoring more probable across a longer run. While Yamal retains upset potential if Spain advances deep and he regains peak explosiveness, the combination of injury caution, age/experience differential, and early tournament evidence anchors the current market consensus.