The narrow 0.5-percentage-point margin between David Crowley and Francesca Hong in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic primary for governor fell within the state’s 1% threshold allowing a potential recount, yet Wisconsin law requires no automatic recount and instead mandates a candidate petition within three business days after county canvasses conclude. No such request materialized before the August 31 deadline, as canvassing timelines and procedural hurdles passed without action despite the close vote totals. Traders assign 100% probability to “No” because the window for ordering a recount has closed without any petition or court intervention. Late filings, successful legal challenges to canvass results, or unexpected certification disputes remain theoretically possible but would face significant institutional and timing barriers under current election statutes.