Ukrainian forces have not re-entered Myrnohrad since Russian troops seized most of the city during the 2026 Pokrovsk offensive, with ISW maps and frontline reports confirming sustained Russian control over central and southern districts. Recent fighting centers on Russian infiltration attempts by small groups on the southeastern outskirts, which Ukrainian units from the 7th Air Assault Corps and 38th Marine Brigade have repelled through FPV drone strikes and search operations, while denying any sustained foothold. Russian forces continue prioritizing armored and infantry pressure along the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis amid hundreds of daily engagements, even as Ukrainian counteroffensives have yielded gains farther east near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. No verified territorial shifts back into Myrnohrad appear in October 2026 reporting, and Ukrainian resources remain stretched across multiple Donetsk sectors. Market-implied probabilities reflect these defensive realities and the absence of imminent Ukrainian advances in the immediate area.