President Donald Trump's arrival in Beijing via Air Force One on May 13 has locked in trader consensus at 100% probability for a China visit on that date, following the Chinese foreign ministry's May 11 confirmation of his state visit from May 13 to 15 for a summit with Xi Jinping. This high-stakes diplomacy addresses trade, Iran tensions, and Taiwan arms sales amid U.S. sanctions on Chinese refineries buying Iranian oil. Advance U.S. military logistics, including a C-17 transport last week, underscored preparations. While the multi-day itinerary extends through May 15, the confirmed landing cements today's outcome; only an extraordinary cancellation due to health, security threats, or diplomatic rupture could shift odds at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNews reports confirm Trump will arrive in China on May 13 local time and Melania Trump will not accompany him, reinforcing the visit timing beyond May 12
May 12 dips to 0%1%
Confirmation of arrival after May 12 and Melania's absence solidified the market's zero probability for May 12.
Final confirmations and preparations for Trump’s arrival in China on May 14-15 are reported, but the market remains at 1%, indicating that the visit is imminent but the market had
Final confirmations and preparations for Trump’s arrival in China on May 14-15 are reported, but the market remains at 1%, indicating that the visit is imminent but the market had largely
Senior U.S. officials emphasize ongoing discussions on Iran, Russia, trade, and Taiwan ahead of the visit, but no change in U.S.
May 14 dips to 1%2%
Taiwan policy, maintaining low market confidence in the May 14 visit outcome
NPR reports Trump departs for China on Tuesday (May 13) despite the ongoing Iran conflict, quoting the president’s own statement that the cease‑fire is “on massive life support,”
May 13 drops to 55%12%
NPR reports Trump departs for China on Tuesday (May 13) despite the ongoing Iran conflict, quoting the president’s own statement that the cease‑fire is “on massive life support,” confirming the trip will proceed as scheduled
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox News that Trump “will not move to reschedule” the May 14‑15 meeting despite the ongoing Iran war, eliminating the last major
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox News that Trump “will not move to reschedule” the May 14‑15 meeting despite the ongoing Iran war, eliminating the last major uncertainty
The Chinese Foreign Ministry officially announces Trump’s state visit to China from May 13 to 15 at Xi Jinping’s invitation, confirming the visit but the market reacts with a
May 14 plunges to 1%36%
The Chinese Foreign Ministry officially announces Trump’s state visit to China from May 13 to 15 at Xi Jinping’s invitation, confirming the visit but the market reacts with a steep drop to near zero, possibly reflecting skepticism about the visit's certainty or other geopolitical risks
Chinese foreign ministry publicly announces the visit (May 13‑15) and U.S.
May 13 rises to 42%4%
principal deputy press secretary Anna Kelly confirms Trump’s arrival on May 13 and details of the itinerary (Temple of Heaven, state banquet)
Channel NewsAsia reports Beijing’s official statement that Trump will discuss Iran, trade and AI during the May 13‑15 summit, adding substantive agenda items and reinforcing
May 13 jumps to 51%9%
Channel NewsAsia reports Beijing’s official statement that Trump will discuss Iran, trade and AI during the May 13‑15 summit, adding substantive agenda items and reinforcing certainty of the trip
Beijing officially announces Trump's state visit dates as May 14-15, confirming the delay and ruling out May 12
May 12 dips to 0%2%
The formal announcement of the visit dates definitively ended market speculation about a May 12 visit.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states Trump will not postpone the May 14–15 meeting with Xi despite Iran conflict, confirming visit timing but not a single-day visit on May
May 15 dips to 0%1%
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states Trump will not postpone the May 14–15 meeting with Xi despite Iran conflict, confirming visit timing but not a single-day visit on May 15, contributing to
Chinese MFA announces Trump’s visit at Xi Jinping’s invitation from May 13 to 15, emphasizing ongoing discussions on Iran, Russia, Taiwan, and trade, but no exclusive focus on May
May 15 dips to 1%2%
Chinese MFA announces Trump’s visit at Xi Jinping’s invitation from May 13 to 15, emphasizing ongoing discussions on Iran, Russia, Taiwan, and trade, but no exclusive focus on May 15, pushing
Reuters reports that Elon Musk, Tim Cook, GE Aerospace’s Larry Culp and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg will join Trump on his May 14‑15 China visit, confirming the high‑profile delegation
No visit by May 31 dips to 0%1%
Reuters reports that Elon Musk, Tim Cook, GE Aerospace’s Larry Culp and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg will join Trump on his May 14‑15 China visit, confirming the high‑profile delegation and solidifying the trip’s schedule
Chinese MFA officially announces on X that President Trump will pay a state visit “from May 13 to 15” at Xi Jinping’s invitation, providing the definitive source required for
May 14 plunges to 2%17%
Chinese MFA officially announces on X that President Trump will pay a state visit “from May 13 to 15” at Xi Jinping’s invitation, providing the definitive source required for market resolution
Reuters preview notes Trump and Xi will meet to discuss Iran, Taiwan, AI and a critical minerals deal, and that Trump is scheduled to arrive on May 13, further cementing the
May 13 surges to 69%18%
Reuters preview notes Trump and Xi will meet to discuss Iran, Taiwan, AI and a critical minerals deal, and that Trump is scheduled to arrive on May 13, further cementing the timeline
Trump’s son Eric and wife Lara announced they will accompany the President “in a personal capacity” on the May 14‑15 trip, removing speculation about a family‑only or cancelled
May 14 drops to 19%11%
Trump’s son Eric and wife Lara announced they will accompany the President “in a personal capacity” on the May 14‑15 trip, removing speculation about a family‑only or cancelled visit
| Reuters reports that China and the U.S.
May 14 dips to 17%4%
will discuss extending a critical minerals deal during Trump’s May 14‑15 visit |
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets U.S.
Senate delegation, reinforcing diplomatic engagement ahead of Trump’s visit, but no confirmation of May 15 arrival date, causing
Senator Steve Daines leads the first bipartisan Senate delegation to China since Trump took office;
No visit by May 31 dips to 5%2%
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets the group, underscoring the imminent presidential trip
Senate bipartisan delegation led by Sen.
May 13 plunges to 39%16%
Steve Daines meets Chinese leaders in Beijing, signaling high‑level diplomatic coordination ahead of Trump’s trip
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets the U.S.
May 14 dips to 30%2%
Senate delegation in Beijing, further confirming logistical preparations for the May 13‑15 state visit
Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji meet the U.S.
May 14 rises to 37%4%
Senate delegation in Beijing, further strengthening diplomatic signals and supporting expectations of the visit
| Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji meet the U.S.
May 14 drops to 21%6%
Senate delegation in Beijing, reinforcing expectations of a May 14 state visit |
Chinese Premier Li Qiang and NPC Chairman Zhao Leji meet U.S.
May 13 rises to 55%3%
Senate delegation, reinforcing diplomatic engagement ahead of Trump’s visit
Chinese Premier Li Qiang and other officials meet with a bipartisan U.S. Senate delegation in Beijing, indicating warming ties but no Trump visit yet
This event did not affect the May 12 outcome
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms Trump will not postpone the May 14–15 meeting with Xi Jinping despite ongoing Iran conflict, solidifying market certainty that the
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms Trump will not postpone the May 14–15 meeting with Xi Jinping despite ongoing Iran conflict, solidifying market certainty that the visit will not happen on May 21
| Senate delegation led by Steve Daines visits Beijing;
May 14 drops to 27%6%
Chinese leaders meet the group, signaling strong diplomatic momentum for the May 14 summit |
A bipartisan U.S. Senate delegation led by Steve Daines visits China, meeting with Premier Li Qiang and other officials, indicating warming diplomatic ties ahead of Trump's visit
May 14 surges to 33%17%
A bipartisan U.S. Senate delegation led by Steve Daines visits China, meeting with Premier Li Qiang and other officials, indicating warming diplomatic ties ahead of Trump's visit and causing a
Reports emerge of U.S. Air Force C-17 planes landing in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump's visit but no confirmation of arrival on May 12
May 12 dips to 0%1%
The market remained skeptical as logistical movements did not confirm a May 12 arrival.
The White House officially announces Trump’s state visit to China is scheduled for May 14–15, confirming the visit will occur earlier than May 21 and effectively ruling out the
May 21 dips to 0%1%
The White House officially announces Trump’s state visit to China is scheduled for May 14–15, confirming the visit will occur earlier than May 21 and effectively ruling out the May 21 date
Official US State Department confirms phone call arranging Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15, further solidifying the visit dates and pushing market probability for May 23 to
May 23 dips to 0%2%
Official US State Department confirms phone call arranging Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15, further solidifying the visit dates and pushing market probability for May 23 to near zero
Chinese official Wang Yi holds phone call with U.S.
May 13 dips to 38%3%
Senator Marco Rubio to discuss head-of-state diplomacy, signaling progress in visit preparations
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S.
May 14 jumps to 27%9%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a phone call to discuss head-of-state diplomacy, signaling progress toward confirming the visit date and temporarily lifting market confidence
China’s foreign minister urges US to maintain stability over Taiwan ahead of Trump’s scheduled May 14-15 visit, confirming the trip timing and reducing likelihood of a later May
May 23 plunges to 2%39%
China’s foreign minister urges US to maintain stability over Taiwan ahead of Trump’s scheduled May 14-15 visit, confirming the trip timing and reducing likelihood of a later May visit
Wang Yi’s phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio includes “preliminary communication regarding subsequent head‑of‑state diplomacy,” signalling that the May 14‑15
May 14 jumps to 27%8%
Wang Yi’s phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio includes “preliminary communication regarding subsequent head‑of‑state diplomacy,” signalling that the May 14‑15 visit is moving forward in official channels
Reports emerge that Trump initially planned to visit China in early April but postponed the trip due to the ongoing Iran conflict, causing uncertainty about the exact visit date
May 14 plunges to 18%18%
Reports emerge that Trump initially planned to visit China in early April but postponed the trip due to the ongoing Iran conflict, causing uncertainty about the exact visit date and lowering market probability
The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong holds its Annual China Conference, discussing the upcoming Trump visit on May 14-15 and the future of U.S.-China trade relations,
May 14 jumps to 36%6%
The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong holds its Annual China Conference, discussing the upcoming Trump visit on May 14-15 and the future of U.S.-China trade relations, reinforcing expectations of the visit and boosting market confidence
Trump announces U.S. request to China to delay the summit originally planned for early April due to the ongoing Iran war
May 12 plunges to 2%39%
This official postponement caused a sharp drop in market confidence that Trump would visit China on May 12.
Trump announces China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran and confirms his state visit to China will occur soon, with Xi Jinping expected to welcome him warmly;
this raised expectations for a near-term visit but did not specify May 21
U.S. President Donald Trump announces plans to visit China in May 2026 for a summit with President Xi Jinping, highlighting the focus on trade war issues and signaling a potential
May 14 drops to 30%12%
U.S. President Donald Trump announces plans to visit China in May 2026 for a summit with President Xi Jinping, highlighting the focus on trade war issues and signaling a potential breakthrough in U.S.-China relations
Trump postpones his planned China trip from early April to about five or six weeks later due to the ongoing Iran war, creating uncertainty and causing a sharp drop in market
May 21 plunges to 2%39%
Trump postpones his planned China trip from early April to about five or six weeks later due to the ongoing Iran war, creating uncertainty and causing a sharp drop in market confidence for a May 21 visit
(referenced) | Historical note: Trump’s previous China visit in 2017, cited to contrast the rarity of a U.S.
president visiting China, underscoring the significance of the May 14 date (no
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