US military operations against Iran since late February 2026 have involved airstrikes and responses to incidents around the Strait of Hormuz without a congressional declaration of war, consistent with post-WWII precedent and shared executive-legislative war powers. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan and others have advanced toward a memorandum of understanding in recent weeks, with both sides signaling proximity to an interim agreement on issues including sanctions relief, asset releases, and waterway access as of mid-June. Sporadic exchanges of fire in early June have not derailed diplomatic channels, and President Trump has publicly referenced canceled strikes amid progress reports. Formal congressional action remains unlikely absent major escalation or a shift in political consensus, given ongoing ceasefire efforts and the absence of a declared state of war. Traders assess the probability of an official declaration by typical resolution dates as low due to these structural and diplomatic dynamics.