US military operations against Iran, initiated via airstrikes and naval actions on February 28, 2026, have continued amid a fragile ceasefire and intermittent strikes through June, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan focus on Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, frozen assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, with recent US strikes targeting missile sites and surveillance in response to Iranian threats to shipping. Congressional efforts to constrain presidential authority, including House votes limiting war powers, alongside Iranian demands for guarantees and economic concessions, shape the environment. Escalation risks persist from naval incidents or failed talks, while any formal declaration would require Senate and House approval under constitutional processes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,572,555 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$7,572,555 Vol.
December 31
$599,921 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran, initiated via airstrikes and naval actions on February 28, 2026, have continued amid a fragile ceasefire and intermittent strikes through June, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan focus on Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, frozen assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, with recent US strikes targeting missile sites and surveillance in response to Iranian threats to shipping. Congressional efforts to constrain presidential authority, including House votes limiting war powers, alongside Iranian demands for guarantees and economic concessions, shape the environment. Escalation risks persist from naval incidents or failed talks, while any formal declaration would require Senate and House approval under constitutional processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,572,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran, initiated via airstrikes and naval actions on February 28, 2026, have continued amid a fragile ceasefire and intermittent strikes through June, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan focus on Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, frozen assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, with recent US strikes targeting missile sites and surveillance in response to Iranian threats to shipping. Congressional efforts to constrain presidential authority, including House votes limiting war powers, alongside Iranian demands for guarantees and economic concessions, shape the environment. Escalation risks persist from naval incidents or failed talks, while any formal declaration would require Senate and House approval under constitutional processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,572,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations against Iran, initiated via airstrikes and naval actions on February 28, 2026, have continued amid a fragile ceasefire and intermittent strikes through June, without a formal congressional declaration of war. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan focus on Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, frozen assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, with recent US strikes targeting missile sites and surveillance in response to Iranian threats to shipping. Congressional efforts to constrain presidential authority, including House votes limiting war powers, alongside Iranian demands for guarantees and economic concessions, shape the environment. Escalation risks persist from naval incidents or failed talks, while any formal declaration would require Senate and House approval under constitutional processes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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