US-Iran negotiations continue under a temporary ceasefire extended since April 2026, with talks focusing on limits to Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and security guarantees. Recent developments include a negotiator-level memorandum in late May and mixed signals from both sides, with Iranian officials reporting limited progress by early June while US statements emphasize patience and unresolved details. Military actions have included targeted US strikes on Iranian sites and Iranian responses, yet Congress has not authorized or declared war, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct operations without formal declarations. Upcoming events such as further diplomatic rounds or potential deadlines in the 60-day truce extension window could influence whether tensions escalate to a congressional vote or remain contained through diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,568,576 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$7,568,576 Vol.
December 31
$595,941 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran negotiations continue under a temporary ceasefire extended since April 2026, with talks focusing on limits to Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and security guarantees. Recent developments include a negotiator-level memorandum in late May and mixed signals from both sides, with Iranian officials reporting limited progress by early June while US statements emphasize patience and unresolved details. Military actions have included targeted US strikes on Iranian sites and Iranian responses, yet Congress has not authorized or declared war, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct operations without formal declarations. Upcoming events such as further diplomatic rounds or potential deadlines in the 60-day truce extension window could influence whether tensions escalate to a congressional vote or remain contained through diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,568,576End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran negotiations continue under a temporary ceasefire extended since April 2026, with talks focusing on limits to Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and security guarantees. Recent developments include a negotiator-level memorandum in late May and mixed signals from both sides, with Iranian officials reporting limited progress by early June while US statements emphasize patience and unresolved details. Military actions have included targeted US strikes on Iranian sites and Iranian responses, yet Congress has not authorized or declared war, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct operations without formal declarations. Upcoming events such as further diplomatic rounds or potential deadlines in the 60-day truce extension window could influence whether tensions escalate to a congressional vote or remain contained through diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,568,576End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran negotiations continue under a temporary ceasefire extended since April 2026, with talks focusing on limits to Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and security guarantees. Recent developments include a negotiator-level memorandum in late May and mixed signals from both sides, with Iranian officials reporting limited progress by early June while US statements emphasize patience and unresolved details. Military actions have included targeted US strikes on Iranian sites and Iranian responses, yet Congress has not authorized or declared war, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct operations without formal declarations. Upcoming events such as further diplomatic rounds or potential deadlines in the 60-day truce extension window could influence whether tensions escalate to a congressional vote or remain contained through diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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