**Ongoing limited U.S.-Iran military exchanges centered on the Strait of Hormuz, combined with economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts, underpin the 83.5% trader-implied probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.** Since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, fighting has remained air, naval, and proxy-focused rather than involving large-scale ground operations. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent talks have produced intermittent ceasefires and sanctions relief discussions, though violations have triggered renewed limited strikes. U.S. officials emphasize economic pressure and targeted degradation of Iranian capabilities over troop deployments, which military assessments indicate would require over 100,000 personnel amid high risks and domestic opposition. Recent September 2026 clashes show both sides avoiding escalation to full invasion, with public U.S. disapproval and midterm considerations further constraining options. A major Iranian provocation or breakdown in Hormuz access could still shift dynamics before the deadline.