The Philippine Senate's composition, with numerous allies of Vice President Sara Duterte, combined with the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority for conviction, forms the core driver of the closely balanced trader consensus around a 45% chance of Senate conviction by year-end. The ongoing impeachment trial, which began in July 2026 following House approval of articles on misuse of funds, grave threats, and related charges, features presentation of evidence and witness testimony that could sway senator-judges. Political divisions between Duterte and Marcos factions, procedural rulings, and potential shifts in Senate alignment remain key variables. Developments such as compelling new testimony, Senate leadership changes, or court interventions could alter probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition, with numerous allies of Vice President Sara Duterte, combined with the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority for conviction, forms the core driver of the closely balanced trader consensus around a 45% chance of Senate conviction by year-end. The ongoing impeachment trial, which began in July 2026 following House approval of articles on misuse of funds, grave threats, and related charges, features presentation of evidence and witness testimony that could sway senator-judges. Political divisions between Duterte and Marcos factions, procedural rulings, and potential shifts in Senate alignment remain key variables. Developments such as compelling new testimony, Senate leadership changes, or court interventions could alter probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$9,030End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition, with numerous allies of Vice President Sara Duterte, combined with the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority for conviction, forms the core driver of the closely balanced trader consensus around a 45% chance of Senate conviction by year-end. The ongoing impeachment trial, which began in July 2026 following House approval of articles on misuse of funds, grave threats, and related charges, features presentation of evidence and witness testimony that could sway senator-judges. Political divisions between Duterte and Marcos factions, procedural rulings, and potential shifts in Senate alignment remain key variables. Developments such as compelling new testimony, Senate leadership changes, or court interventions could alter probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$9,030End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate's composition, with numerous allies of Vice President Sara Duterte, combined with the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority for conviction, forms the core driver of the closely balanced trader consensus around a 45% chance of Senate conviction by year-end. The ongoing impeachment trial, which began in July 2026 following House approval of articles on misuse of funds, grave threats, and related charges, features presentation of evidence and witness testimony that could sway senator-judges. Political divisions between Duterte and Marcos factions, procedural rulings, and potential shifts in Senate alignment remain key variables. Developments such as compelling new testimony, Senate leadership changes, or court interventions could alter probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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