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Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?

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Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?

0% chance
Polymarket

$4,269 Vol.

0% chance
Polymarket

$4,269 Vol.

On Sunday, September 17, 2023, a pilot ejected from an F-35 which subsequently went missing: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/f-35-fighter-jet-missing-pilot-ejects-mishap-rcna105534 If this F-35 is located by September 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that any individual piece of the missing F-35 be located. If there is any ambiguity as to whether a part or the whole of the F-35 has been found within the market timeframe, this market may remain open until a definitive determination has been made. The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by the US Government or the United States Armed Forces, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.

On Sunday, September 17, 2023, a pilot ejected from an F-35 which subsequently went missing: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/f-35-fighter-jet-missing-pilot-ejects-mishap-rcna105534 If this F-35 is located by September 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that any individual piece of the missing F-35 be located. If there is any ambiguity as to whether a part or the whole of the F-35 has been found within the market timeframe, this market may remain open until a definitive determination has been made. The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by the US Government or the United States Armed Forces, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2023. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.