Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Ended: Mar 31

$2,669,455 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

March 31

$750,296 Vol.

April 15

$795,229 Vol.

April 30

$1,123,930 Vol.

$2,669,455 Vol.

March 31

$750,296 Vol.

April 15

$795,229 Vol.

April 30

$1,123,930 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

23%

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

31%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 31" at 0%, followed by "April 15" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" is "March 31" at just 0%, with "April 15" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.7 million traded on “Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 0¢ for "March 31" in the "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 0% chance that "March 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 0¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 100¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market has an active community of 147 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (147)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" generated on Polymarket?

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