The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–May 2026 Iran war. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that suppressed nationwide unrest by mid-January 2026, with no significant military defections or elite fractures reported despite high casualties and internet blackouts. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, authorities quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and maintained institutional control through a subsequent ceasefire. Economic pressures, factional tensions, and lingering opposition activity persist, yet the regime’s security apparatus and asymmetric capabilities have prevented collapse. Traders therefore assign roughly 90 percent probability that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,268,822 Vol.
$20,268,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$20,268,822 Vol.
$20,268,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–May 2026 Iran war. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that suppressed nationwide unrest by mid-January 2026, with no significant military defections or elite fractures reported despite high casualties and internet blackouts. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, authorities quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and maintained institutional control through a subsequent ceasefire. Economic pressures, factional tensions, and lingering opposition activity persist, yet the regime’s security apparatus and asymmetric capabilities have prevented collapse. Traders therefore assign roughly 90 percent probability that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$20,268,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–May 2026 Iran war. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that suppressed nationwide unrest by mid-January 2026, with no significant military defections or elite fractures reported despite high casualties and internet blackouts. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, authorities quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and maintained institutional control through a subsequent ceasefire. Economic pressures, factional tensions, and lingering opposition activity persist, yet the regime’s security apparatus and asymmetric capabilities have prevented collapse. Traders therefore assign roughly 90 percent probability that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,268,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and the February–May 2026 Iran war. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that suppressed nationwide unrest by mid-January 2026, with no significant military defections or elite fractures reported despite high casualties and internet blackouts. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, authorities quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and maintained institutional control through a subsequent ceasefire. Economic pressures, factional tensions, and lingering opposition activity persist, yet the regime’s security apparatus and asymmetric capabilities have prevented collapse. Traders therefore assign roughly 90 percent probability that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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