Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, driven by its forceful reassertion of control following the 2025–2026 protests, which peaked in January amid economic crisis and war escalation but were quelled through massacres, internet shutdowns, and loyal security forces by mid-January. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported killing in late February triggered a swift, if opaque, succession to son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March, stabilizing clerical-military hierarchies despite wartime conditions and leadership invisibility. Ongoing U.S.-Israel strikes have weakened capabilities but rallied regime cohesion without sparking defections or proto-revolution, as fragile April ceasefire talks in Islamabad falter without breakthroughs. Structural resilience—IRGC dominance, suppression tactics—outweighs pressures, though renewed escalation or economic collapse could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,049,005 Vol.
$15,049,005 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,049,005 Vol.
$15,049,005 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, driven by its forceful reassertion of control following the 2025–2026 protests, which peaked in January amid economic crisis and war escalation but were quelled through massacres, internet shutdowns, and loyal security forces by mid-January. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported killing in late February triggered a swift, if opaque, succession to son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March, stabilizing clerical-military hierarchies despite wartime conditions and leadership invisibility. Ongoing U.S.-Israel strikes have weakened capabilities but rallied regime cohesion without sparking defections or proto-revolution, as fragile April ceasefire talks in Islamabad falter without breakthroughs. Structural resilience—IRGC dominance, suppression tactics—outweighs pressures, though renewed escalation or economic collapse could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$15,049,005End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, driven by its forceful reassertion of control following the 2025–2026 protests, which peaked in January amid economic crisis and war escalation but were quelled through massacres, internet shutdowns, and loyal security forces by mid-January. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported killing in late February triggered a swift, if opaque, succession to son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March, stabilizing clerical-military hierarchies despite wartime conditions and leadership invisibility. Ongoing U.S.-Israel strikes have weakened capabilities but rallied regime cohesion without sparking defections or proto-revolution, as fragile April ceasefire talks in Islamabad falter without breakthroughs. Structural resilience—IRGC dominance, suppression tactics—outweighs pressures, though renewed escalation or economic collapse could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,049,020End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, driven by its forceful reassertion of control following the 2025–2026 protests, which peaked in January amid economic crisis and war escalation but were quelled through massacres, internet shutdowns, and loyal security forces by mid-January. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported killing in late February triggered a swift, if opaque, succession to son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March, stabilizing clerical-military hierarchies despite wartime conditions and leadership invisibility. Ongoing U.S.-Israel strikes have weakened capabilities but rallied regime cohesion without sparking defections or proto-revolution, as fragile April ceasefire talks in Islamabad falter without breakthroughs. Structural resilience—IRGC dominance, suppression tactics—outweighs pressures, though renewed escalation or economic collapse could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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