**The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and coercive capacity, anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security forces, underpin the 94.5% trader consensus against regime change before 2027.** Ongoing nationwide protests since late 2025, initially driven by rial depreciation, inflation, and economic hardship, have broadened into anti-regime demonstrations with reports of thousands killed and widespread arrests. However, these remain fragmented without centralized leadership or defections among top security elites. The February-March 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent succession by Mojtaba Khamenei preserved core structures amid the ongoing conflict involving strikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions. U.S. intelligence assessments and analysts note the system's historical ability to absorb shocks through repression and cohesion, with no imminent fracture evident as of mid-October 2026 despite intensified external pressure and domestic strain. Scheduled events like potential negotiations or further military actions could influence short-term dynamics but have not shifted the baseline outlook.